Early sign of weaker conditions ahead

Capital city auction activity held relatively steady last week, with 2,972 homes auctioned across the capitals, easing slightly from the 2,990 held the week prior. The third busiest auction week of the year-to-date (behind the week ending 29 October and the week ending 19 November), last week's auction numbers were 23.9% higher than the numbers seen this time last year (2,414). 

While vendor numbers remain high, buyers have become more cautious, with last week's preliminary capital city clearance rate coming in at 65.9% - the lowest since mid-March (65.0%). With 2,261 results collected so far, last week's early success rate was 2.1 percentage points below the previous week's preliminary rate (68.0%, revised to 62.4% at final numbers) and will likely also revise below the decade average (65.8%) once finalised. 

Across the largest auction markets, Melbourne recorded a mild easing in weekly auction activity, down -7.0% to 1,311, while Sydney hosted its busiest auction week of the year-to-date with 1,154 homes auctioned, up 8.6% week-on-week. Up 39.5% and 14.4%, respectively, compared to the same time last year, last week's auction numbers have corresponded with a normalising in stock levels across both cities. Total listing levels across Melbourne are now 7.6% above the 5-year average for this time of year, while Sydney levels are now in line with the average (0.7%). 

With 910 results collected so far, Sydney's preliminary clearance rate held firm relative to the week prior at 68.7%. Melbourne's early success rate fell 3.9 percentage points to 64.1%, with 1,013 results collected. While this week’s preliminary results are still higher than the final rates seen this time last year, both cities have seen the final clearance rate drift below the decade average over the past few weeks - a clear sign that selling conditions are swinging back towards buyers. This rebalancing can also be seen in the stabilisation of the rolling four-week change in CoreLogic Australia's daily HVI across both cities.

Across the smaller auction capitals, Brisbane hosted the busiest auction week, with 200 homes auctioned last week, followed by Adelaide (161), Canberra (124), and Perth (19). Adelaide and Perth recorded the highest preliminary clearance rates, both at 76.9%, followed by Brisbane at 61.7%. These cities continue to record listing levels well below average, helping to support above-average auction success rates and strong value growth. In contrast, Canberra's preliminary rate came in below average at 52.7%, with total listing numbers holding 15.1% above the levels usually seen this time of year, while none of the three auctions held in Tasmania last week have reported successful results. 

With still a few weeks of strong auction volumes expected before the festive season slowdown, it will be important to see how selling conditions pan out as we approach the end of the spring/early summer selling season. At the moment, it's looking increasingly likely that selling conditions will continue to soften into 2024.