“Sales of new homes nationally have remained low throughout 2023 and this will see the volume of houses commencing construction continue to contract into 2024,” stated HIA Chief Economist Tim Reardon.

 

The HIA New Home Sales report is a monthly survey of the largest volume home builders in the five largest states and is a leading indicator of future detached home construction.

 

“The only exception to this low volume of sales is in Western Australia where it appears that house building will defy the efforts of the Reserve Bank,” added Mr Reardon.

 

“The volume of new home sales in Western Australia has increased since a trough in early 2023 resulting in sales in the three months to the end of November being 49.1 per cent higher than at the same time the previous year.

 

“The strength of sales in Western Australia is now flowing through to a modest rise in approvals. This is likely to see a steady flow of new home starts for Western Australia in 2024.

 

“Unfortunately, the ongoing acute shortage of skilled trades people in Western Australia will cap the growth in starts.

 

“This is a very unique outcome and will see Western Australia remain out of cycle with the rest of the country.

 

“Nationally, new home sales across Australia fell by 7.0 per cent in the month of November and remain at low volumes as rising interest rates continue to constrain house building.  

 

“This will see the volume of homes commencing construction continue to contract in 2024 resulting in the lowest number of new house commencements since 2012,” concluded Mr Reardon.

 

New home sales across Australia in the three months to November 2023 decreased by 0.1 per cent compared to the same time in the previous year. By jurisdiction, sales in the same three-month period compared to the previous year fell in South Australia (-26.1 per cent), Victoria (-14.2 per cent) and NSW (-9.4 per cent). Sales in Queensland increased by 6.3 per cent compared to the previous year, while Western Australia saw a 49.1 per cent increase in the same period.